TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 19, 3:09 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Nicolas Arseneault and Lazar Markovic in the M15 Ithaca, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Nicolas Arseneault' if Nicolas Arseneault advances against Lazar Markovic. This market will resolve to 'Lazar Markovic' if Lazar Markovic advances against Nicolas Arseneault. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Nicolas Arseneault and Lazar Markovic in the M15 Ithaca, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Nicolas Arseneault' if Nicolas Arseneault advances against Lazar Markovic. This market will resolve to 'Lazar Markovic' if Lazar Markovic advances against Nicolas Arseneault. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more people trade, the price adjusts to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. The market’s price is determined solely by supply and demand for shares on Polymarket, and is not influenced by external factors or a central authority setting the price.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Arseneault vs Markovic match, as reported by the governing body of the sport. The platform will verify the result against publicly available information to determine the winning outcome. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will be paid out based on the final market price at the time of resolution, while those who predicted incorrectly will forfeit their shares.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 26, 2026. News regarding player injuries, changes in coaching strategies, or even weather conditions could all impact market sentiment. Unexpected announcements about either Nicolas Arseneault or Lazar Markovic’s form, or any controversies surrounding the match, could also lead to significant price movements. Furthermore, large trades on Polymarket by informed traders could create momentum and shift the probabilities reflected in the market price. Any updates related to the players’ performance or the match itself are signals to watch.