TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 29, 7:36 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Valentin Lapalu and Alexander Chang in the M15 Heraklion, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 29, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Valentin Lapalu' if Valentin Lapalu advances against Alexander Chang. This market will resolve to 'Alexander Chang' if Alexander Chang advances against Valentin Lapalu. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Valentin Lapalu and Alexander Chang in the M15 Heraklion, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 29, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Valentin Lapalu' if Valentin Lapalu advances against Alexander Chang. This market will resolve to 'Alexander Chang' if Alexander Chang advances against Valentin Lapalu. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks incorporate a profit margin into their odds, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders. If a significant discrepancy exists between the implied probability on Polymarket and sportsbook odds, it could indicate a perceived mispricing. However, it's important to remember that both represent different forms of forecasting, and neither is guaranteed to be accurate. Discrepancies can arise from differing information or varying levels of expertise among bettors and market participants.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of each outcome. As more shares are traded, the price adjusts to reflect the collective sentiment of the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price is determined solely by supply and demand within Polymarket, and is not influenced by external factors or other prediction venues.
This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the M15 Heraklion tennis match between Valentin Lapalu and Alexander Chang. The platform will rely on widely available and trusted sources to determine the winner of the match. Once the official result is available, the market will be settled, and winning shares will be redeemed according to the final outcome.
Several factors could influence the trading activity in this market before resolution. Any news regarding player form, injuries, or changes in playing conditions could significantly shift the odds. Unexpected announcements about either Valentin Lapalu or Alexander Chang’s preparation or physical state would likely cause movement. Furthermore, general shifts in public opinion or analysis regarding the likely winner could also impact the price of shares on Polymarket. Major upsets in other related tennis events might also indirectly influence trader sentiment.