TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 6, 6:36 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Tyler Stice and Fabio Luis Guth in the M15 Heraklion, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tyler Stice' if Tyler Stice advances against Fabio Luis Guth. This market will resolve to 'Fabio Luis Guth' if Fabio Luis Guth advances against Tyler Stice. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Tyler Stice and Fabio Luis Guth in the M15 Heraklion, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tyler Stice' if Tyler Stice advances against Fabio Luis Guth. This market will resolve to 'Fabio Luis Guth' if Fabio Luis Guth advances against Tyler Stice. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to profit from margins, while this market allows traders to express their own beliefs about the outcome. If a significant difference emerges, arbitrage opportunities may arise, where traders can profit by betting on both venues. It’s common to see prediction markets move faster to incorporate new information than sportsbooks, potentially leading to more accurate probabilities as the event approaches.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in whether a particular outcome will occur. The price of these shares reflects the implied probability of that outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective assessment of the event's likelihood. The current top outcome, as indicated by the highest share price, is the most favored result according to traders on Polymarket.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the M15 Heraklion tennis match between Tyler Stice and Fabio Luis Guth. The platform will verify the match result against established sports data sources to determine the winning outcome and distribute payouts accordingly. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result to understand how this market will settle.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Any news regarding player form, injuries, or changes in playing conditions could significantly shift trader sentiment. Unexpected results in preceding matches for either Tyler Stice or Fabio Luis Guth could also impact the odds. Furthermore, broader tennis news, such as upsets in other tournaments, might indirectly affect the perceived probabilities in this market. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding potential shifts in the market before Oct 13, 2026.