TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 2:02 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Thomas Kostka and Dvir Osipov in the M15 Heraklion, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 5:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Thomas Kostka' if Thomas Kostka advances against Dvir Osipov. This market will resolve to 'Dvir Osipov' if Dvir Osipov advances against Thomas Kostka. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Thomas Kostka and Dvir Osipov in the M15 Heraklion, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 5:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Thomas Kostka' if Thomas Kostka advances against Dvir Osipov. This market will resolve to 'Dvir Osipov' if Dvir Osipov advances against Thomas Kostka. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome of the Kostka vs Osipov match. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the aggregated predictions of all participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The closer the match gets, the more the price will likely move as new information becomes available and traders refine their assessments. The current implied probability of a particular outcome is directly derived from the share price.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the M15 Heraklion match between Thomas Kostka and Dvir Osipov. The platform will verify the result against publicly available sources to determine the winning outcome. Traders who correctly predicted the result will be paid out according to the final share price at the time of resolution, while those who bet on the losing outcome will forfeit their shares.
Several signals could significantly impact this market before resolution. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or even tactical adjustments announced by either player could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected upsets in other matches featuring these players, or broader shifts in the rankings, could also influence the odds. Furthermore, any public statements or analysis from experts regarding the players' form or potential strategies could lead to increased trading activity and price fluctuations in this market. Monitoring these factors will be key to understanding potential movements.