TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 10:32 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Rafael Giotis and Sten Hiiesalu in the M15 Heraklion, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Rafael Giotis' if Rafael Giotis advances against Sten Hiiesalu. This market will resolve to 'Sten Hiiesalu' if Sten Hiiesalu advances against Rafael Giotis. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Rafael Giotis and Sten Hiiesalu in the M15 Heraklion, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Rafael Giotis' if Rafael Giotis advances against Sten Hiiesalu. This market will resolve to 'Sten Hiiesalu' if Sten Hiiesalu advances against Rafael Giotis. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more people buy shares in a particular outcome, its price increases, and the implied probability rises. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price reflects the aggregated predictions of all participants, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of the potential result of the Giotis vs Hiiesalu match. This allows for a fluid adjustment of expectations as new information becomes available.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the M15 Heraklion tennis match between Rafael Giotis and Sten Hiiesalu. The platform will rely on widely accepted sources to determine the winner of the match, ensuring a fair and transparent resolution process. Traders should monitor official tennis reporting channels for updates as the resolution date approaches, as this will determine the payout of their shares in this market.
Several signals could influence the price of this market before Oct 11, 2026. Any news regarding player form, injuries, or changes in playing conditions could significantly shift expectations. Unexpected upsets in other matches involving these players, or broader trends in the tennis world, might also impact trading activity. Furthermore, large trades by influential participants on Polymarket could create short-term price movements. Monitoring tennis news, player statistics, and market activity will be crucial for understanding potential catalysts that could move this market.