TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 7, 11:13 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Pavlos Tsitsipas and Nicholas Campbell in the M15 Heraklion, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 7, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Pavlos Tsitsipas' if Pavlos Tsitsipas advances against Nicholas Campbell. This market will resolve to 'Nicholas Campbell' if Nicholas Campbell advances against Pavlos Tsitsipas. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Pavlos Tsitsipas and Nicholas Campbell in the M15 Heraklion, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 7, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Pavlos Tsitsipas' if Pavlos Tsitsipas advances against Nicholas Campbell. This market will resolve to 'Nicholas Campbell' if Nicholas Campbell advances against Pavlos Tsitsipas. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially differing from those offered by traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market is driven by individual predictions and the resulting supply and demand. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially when there's strong public sentiment or information asymmetry. Analyzing these differences can reveal insights into where the crowd believes sportsbooks may be mispricing the probability of an event. This can be a useful tool for informed betting decisions.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous exchange mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of the event happening. As more traders buy shares, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived chance of success. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price adjusts dynamically based on the collective actions of all participants, creating a real-time assessment of the likelihood of each possible result. This creates a fascinating view into the aggregated expectations of the crowd.
This market resolves around Oct 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the M15 Heraklion tennis match between Pavlos Tsitsipas and Nicholas Campbell. The platform will rely on established tennis data sources to determine the winner, and the shares will be settled accordingly. It’s important to note that the resolution process is dependent on the timely and accurate reporting of the official results from the tournament organizers.
Several factors could influence this market leading up to the match. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or significant shifts in player form could cause the odds to move. Unexpected announcements about player withdrawals or alterations to the match schedule would also likely have an impact. Furthermore, general tennis news and analysis, as well as public sentiment expressed on social media, can contribute to changes in trading volume and price. Monitoring these signals can provide valuable insights into potential market movements.