TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 29, 9:41 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Nikita Mashtakov and Gilberto Ravasio in the M15 Heraklion, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 29, 2026 at 4:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Nikita Mashtakov' if Nikita Mashtakov advances against Gilberto Ravasio. This market will resolve to 'Gilberto Ravasio' if Gilberto Ravasio advances against Nikita Mashtakov. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Nikita Mashtakov and Gilberto Ravasio in the M15 Heraklion, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 29, 2026 at 4:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Nikita Mashtakov' if Nikita Mashtakov advances against Gilberto Ravasio. This market will resolve to 'Gilberto Ravasio' if Gilberto Ravasio advances against Nikita Mashtakov. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook offerings. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and to balance action, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook has mispriced an outcome, the odds on Polymarket will adjust accordingly. It's common to see prediction markets outperform traditional sportsbooks, especially as more information becomes available and the event draws closer. This difference can create arbitrage opportunities for informed traders.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the probability of each outcome. As more shares are traded, the price adjusts to reflect the collective sentiment. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of the outcome it represents; a share priced at 60 means there is a 60% implied probability of that outcome occurring. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the most up-to-date information and opinions of participants.
This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Nikita Mashtakov vs Gilberto Ravasio match as reported by recognized tennis authorities. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine the winning outcome and distribute funds to those who correctly predicted the result. Traders should monitor official sources for the final match results to understand how this market will settle.
Several factors could influence trading activity and shift the odds in this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing surface conditions, or even weather forecasts could impact trader sentiment. Unexpected results in other matches involving these players, or broader shifts in tennis rankings, could also play a role. Furthermore, large trades on Polymarket by influential traders could cause significant price movements. Monitoring tennis news and following the activity on the platform will provide insights into potential catalysts for change.