TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 21, 10:47 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Matthew Thomson and Ioannis Xilas in the M15 Heraklion, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 21, 2026 at 5:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Matthew Thomson' if Matthew Thomson advances against Ioannis Xilas. This market will resolve to 'Ioannis Xilas' if Ioannis Xilas advances against Matthew Thomson. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Matthew Thomson and Ioannis Xilas in the M15 Heraklion, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 21, 2026 at 5:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Matthew Thomson' if Matthew Thomson advances against Ioannis Xilas. This market will resolve to 'Ioannis Xilas' if Ioannis Xilas advances against Matthew Thomson. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which may be influenced by house biases or differing information sources. Sportsbooks typically set initial odds based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market allows anyone to express their belief about the outcome. If there's a significant discrepancy between the two, it could indicate that the market believes the sportsbook has mispriced the probability of a particular player winning. It’s important to note that both represent probabilities, but are derived through different mechanisms.
This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Heraklion tennis match between Matthew Thomson and Ioannis Xilas as reported by a recognized tennis authority. The winner of the match, as officially declared, will determine the outcome of this market. Traders holding shares in the winning player will be paid out according to the final market price, while those holding shares in the losing player will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions (like weather), or updates on their recent performance could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected results in other matches involving these players, or even general news about the tournament, could also have an impact. A significant shift in betting activity on sportsbooks could also prompt traders to reassess their positions, leading to price fluctuations in this market. Ultimately, any information that alters the perceived probability of either player winning has the potential to move the market.