TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$238,896,186
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,934,485
408,127
Markets across
39,552
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,429
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 7:34 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Jakub Filip and Amit Vales in the M15 Heraklion, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 10, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jakub Filip' if Jakub Filip advances against Amit Vales. This market will resolve to 'Amit Vales' if Amit Vales advances against Jakub Filip. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Jakub Filip and Amit Vales in the M15 Heraklion, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 10, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jakub Filip' if Jakub Filip advances against Amit Vales. This market will resolve to 'Amit Vales' if Amit Vales advances against Jakub Filip. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of informed traders, and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and to balance action, while this market is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook is undervaluing a particular outcome, they can drive the price on Polymarket in the opposite direction. This dynamic can lead to discrepancies, and potentially, opportunities for arbitrage. It's common to see differences in implied probabilities between this market and those offered by sportsbooks.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome of the Heraklion tennis match. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy shares in a particular outcome, the price increases, reflecting a higher perceived probability. Conversely, selling pressure lowers the price. The market’s price is determined entirely by supply and demand, and is a real-time indicator of collective prediction.
This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Jakub Filip versus Amit Vales tennis match in Heraklion. The platform will rely on widely available and trusted sources to determine the winner of the match. Traders will be able to see the resolution details on Polymarket once the official results are available, and payouts will be distributed accordingly. It is important to note that the resolution process is independent and based on objective results.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 17, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions (weather, court surface), or updated player rankings could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected results in other matches involving these players could also impact the market, as they might influence perceptions of form and momentum. Major shifts in public opinion, perhaps driven by expert analysis or social media discussion, could also lead to price movements. Ultimately, any information that alters the perceived probability of either player winning will likely affect trading activity on Polymarket.