TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 7:56 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Ewen Lumsden and Joseph Roboly in the M15 Heraklion, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 18, 2026 at 6:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ewen Lumsden' if Ewen Lumsden advances against Joseph Roboly. This market will resolve to 'Joseph Roboly' if Joseph Roboly advances against Ewen Lumsden. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Ewen Lumsden and Joseph Roboly in the M15 Heraklion, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 18, 2026 at 6:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ewen Lumsden' if Ewen Lumsden advances against Joseph Roboly. This market will resolve to 'Joseph Roboly' if Joseph Roboly advances against Ewen Lumsden. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of bettors, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbook odds are typically set by professional oddsmakers, whereas this market is driven by individual traders expressing their beliefs. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, especially before a significant amount of trading occurs. These differences can arise from varying levels of information, biases, or simply differing interpretations of the event's potential outcomes. Analyzing both can provide a more comprehensive understanding of the expected result.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy shares, the price increases, and vice versa. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the aggregated sentiment of all participants, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of the event's likelihood. The market’s price is determined solely by supply and demand within Polymarket.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Ewen Lumsden versus Joseph Roboly match, as reported by the governing tennis authority. The platform will verify the result against established sources to determine the winning outcome. Traders holding shares in the winning outcome will be paid out according to the final market price at resolution, while those holding shares in the losing outcome will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market leading up to Oct 25, 2026. Any news regarding player form, injuries, or changes in playing conditions could significantly impact the perceived probabilities. Unexpected announcements about the match schedule or venue could also cause shifts in the market. Furthermore, large trading volumes from informed participants or shifts in broader tennis betting sentiment could drive price movements. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding how the market evolves as the event approaches and potentially identifying advantageous trading opportunities.