TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 5:38 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between David Doherty and James Pikkaart in the M15 Heraklion, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'David Doherty' if David Doherty advances against James Pikkaart. This market will resolve to 'James Pikkaart' if James Pikkaart advances against David Doherty. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between David Doherty and James Pikkaart in the M15 Heraklion, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'David Doherty' if David Doherty advances against James Pikkaart. This market will resolve to 'James Pikkaart' if James Pikkaart advances against David Doherty. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than those found at traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks typically incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, ensuring a profit margin, while this market allows traders to directly assess the probability of an outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information sources, varying levels of expertise among participants, and the influence of market sentiment. If there’s a significant difference, it might indicate that the crowd believes a sportsbook is mispricing the event, or vice versa, presenting a potential arbitrage opportunity.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of a particular outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds are constantly updated, providing a real-time assessment of the event’s potential results.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the M15 Heraklion tennis match between David Doherty and James Pikkaart. The platform will rely on widely available and trusted sources to determine the winner of the match and finalize the settlement of this market. Any disputes will be handled according to Polymarket’s established guidelines.
Several factors could influence the trading activity in this market leading up to Oct 11, 2026. News regarding player form, injuries, or changes in playing conditions could all shift trader sentiment. Unexpected results in other matches involving either player might also impact the perceived likelihood of their success. Furthermore, any significant public endorsements or analysis from tennis experts could sway the market. Ultimately, any information that alters the perceived probability of either player winning will likely cause movement in the odds.