TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 7:56 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Cezar Cretu and Amit Vales in the M15 Heraklion, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 25, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Cezar Cretu' if Cezar Cretu advances against Amit Vales. This market will resolve to 'Amit Vales' if Amit Vales advances against Cezar Cretu. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Cezar Cretu and Amit Vales in the M15 Heraklion, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 25, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Cezar Cretu' if Cezar Cretu advances against Amit Vales. This market will resolve to 'Amit Vales' if Amit Vales advances against Cezar Cretu. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own analysis and incorporate a profit margin, while this market reflects the wisdom of the crowd. Discrepancies can arise due to differing opinions, information advantages held by traders, or simply variations in how risk is assessed. If significant differences emerge, it may indicate that the market believes a sportsbook has mispriced the probability of a particular outcome. Examining both sets of odds can provide a more comprehensive understanding of the potential results.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective assessment of the event. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price is determined solely by supply and demand within Polymarket, and is not influenced by external factors or other prediction markets. This dynamic pricing ensures the odds are constantly updated based on the latest information and trader sentiment.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Cezar Cretu vs Amit Vales match, as declared by the governing body of the M15 Heraklion tournament. The platform will verify the result against publicly available sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final outcome of the match. The resolution process is designed to be objective and based on verifiable data.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding player form, injuries, or changes in playing conditions could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected upsets in other matches within the tournament might also affect perceptions of player momentum. Furthermore, significant betting activity or large trades on Polymarket could create price movements. Publicly released analysis from tennis experts or changes in weather forecasts for Heraklion could also play a role. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for understanding potential shifts in the market’s predictions.