TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 2:58 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Naoto Tomizawa and Max Dahlin in the M15 Ann Arbor, MI, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 3, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Naoto Tomizawa' if Naoto Tomizawa advances against Max Dahlin. This market will resolve to 'Max Dahlin' if Max Dahlin advances against Naoto Tomizawa. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Naoto Tomizawa and Max Dahlin in the M15 Ann Arbor, MI, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 3, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Naoto Tomizawa' if Naoto Tomizawa advances against Max Dahlin. This market will resolve to 'Max Dahlin' if Max Dahlin advances against Naoto Tomizawa. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd effect, potentially differing from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and profit margins, while this market is driven by the collective predictions of traders. If a significant discrepancy exists, it could indicate that the market believes the sportsbook is mispricing the event. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities, and neither is guaranteed to be correct. Analyzing the differences can offer valuable insights into public perception and potential value.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their beliefs about the outcome of the Tomizawa vs Dahlin match. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of each outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts to reflect the evolving consensus. The market’s price is determined solely by supply and demand within Polymarket, and is not influenced by external factors or other prediction markets.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Tomizawa vs Dahlin match, as declared by the governing body of the competition. The platform will verify the result against publicly available sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will be eligible to receive their winnings, based on the final share price at the time of resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 10, 2026. News regarding player injuries, changes in training regimens, or even weather conditions could all impact trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about the players’ strategies or any controversies surrounding the match could also cause significant price movements. Furthermore, large trades by influential market participants can create short-term volatility. Monitoring these signals and staying informed about the latest developments will be crucial for understanding potential shifts in the market’s price.