TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$260,393,102
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,894,304,386
408,643
Markets across
39,771
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,493
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 24, 10:21 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Tommy Paul and Taylor Fritz in the Lyon Open, originally scheduled for October 24, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tommy Paul' if Tommy Paul advances against Taylor Fritz. This market will resolve to 'Taylor Fritz' if Taylor Fritz advances against Tommy Paul. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Tommy Paul and Taylor Fritz in the Lyon Open, originally scheduled for October 24, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tommy Paul' if Tommy Paul advances against Taylor Fritz. This market will resolve to 'Taylor Fritz' if Taylor Fritz advances against Tommy Paul. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a different set of information and incentives than those found at traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, while prediction markets aim to represent the true probability of an event occurring, as determined by traders. It’s common to see differences emerge, especially as new information becomes available or as public sentiment shifts. Examining these differences can be insightful, potentially revealing where the crowd believes sportsbooks are mispricing the outcome of the Paul vs Fritz match.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of a particular outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the price adjusts to reflect the collective assessment of the event's probability. The market’s efficiency relies on informed traders and active participation, creating a dynamic pricing environment for the Paul vs Fritz match.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Paul vs Fritz match as reported by recognized sports authorities. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine which outcome corresponds to the winning shares. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome will be entitled to a payout based on the final market price at the time of resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of shares in this market leading up to Oct 31, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or even shifts in public perception could significantly impact trading activity. Unexpected announcements about player form or tactical adjustments could also cause the market to react. Furthermore, large volume trades from informed participants can sometimes signal a change in sentiment, prompting others to adjust their positions and influencing the overall price of this market.