TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$260,393,102
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,894,304,386
408,643
Markets across
39,771
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,493
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 21, 11:29 AM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether Stan Wawrinka will advance against Martin Landaluce in their Lyon Open tennis match, originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. Currently, Polymarket gives a 100.0% probability to Stan Wawrinka winning the match. The resolution source for this market is the official ATP Tour website at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Keep an eye on the match result itself, as the market will resolve based on the outcome of the fixture scheduled for October 19, 2026.
This market refers to the tennis match between Stan Wawrinka and Martin Landaluce in the Lyon Open, originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Stan Wawrinka' if Stan Wawrinka advances against Martin Landaluce. This market will resolve to 'Martin Landaluce' if Martin Landaluce advances against Stan Wawrinka. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of forecasters, which can differ from sportsbook odds that may be influenced by factors like house biases or public perception. Sportsbooks typically set initial lines to balance betting action, while this market allows traders to freely express their beliefs about the likelihood of each player winning. This can lead to discrepancies, particularly as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. It’s common to see prediction markets more accurately forecast outcomes, especially when there is significant information asymmetry.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the probability of each outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the market price adjusts to reflect the aggregated view of the crowd. The more shares purchased for a particular outcome, the higher its price will climb, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures the market remains responsive to new information and changing expectations.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Wawrinka vs Landaluce match, as reported by a recognized tennis authority. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine which outcome—Wawrinka winning or Landaluce winning—is the correct one. Traders holding shares in the winning outcome will be entitled to a payout, while those holding shares in the losing outcome will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or updates on their recent performance could significantly shift trader sentiment. Unexpected upsets in other matches leading up to the Wawrinka vs Landaluce match could also impact perceptions of player form. Furthermore, any public statements from analysts or experts offering predictions about the match outcome could introduce new information and affect trading activity. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding how this market evolves.