TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 23, 6:55 PM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether Luca Van Assche will win his match against Lorenzo Musetti at the Lyon Open. Currently, Polymarket gives a 100.0% probability to the outcome of “Lyon Open: Completed Match: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti”, while the alternative outcome has a 0.1% probability. The resolution source for this market is the official ATP Tour website at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Keep an eye on the originally scheduled match time of October 23, 2026 at 2:30PM ET, as this is when the initial signal for resolution will be observed.
This market refers to the tennis match between Luca Van Assche and Lorenzo Musetti in the Lyon Open, originally scheduled for October 23, 2026 at 2:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Luca Van Assche' if Luca Van Assche advances against Lorenzo Musetti. This market will resolve to 'Lorenzo Musetti' if Lorenzo Musetti advances against Luca Van Assche. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, which represents their profit margin. This market, driven by the collective intelligence of traders on Polymarket, aims to represent the true probabilities as perceived by the crowd. While sportsbooks may initially set odds based on expert analysis, this market evolves dynamically as traders react to news, injuries, and other relevant factors, potentially offering a more accurate reflection of the likely outcome. It's common to see differences emerge as the event approaches.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of the event occurring. As more traders participate and express their views, the price adjusts accordingly, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of the potential result. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current volume indicates the level of interest and confidence in the market, and the price movements can signal shifts in expectations regarding the Lyon Open match.
This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Lyon Open match between Luca Van Assche and Lorenzo Musetti as declared by the tournament organizers. The platform will verify the result against established sports data sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their positions based on the final outcome of the match.
Several factors could influence trading activity and move this market before the match concludes. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or even updated analysis from tennis experts could significantly impact trader sentiment. Unexpected results in other matches involving these players leading up to the Lyon Open could also shift expectations. Furthermore, significant trading volume from informed individuals or groups could also cause noticeable price movements, reflecting a change in perceived probabilities as the event draws closer.