TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
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$219,029,434
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2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
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PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 4:10 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets evaluate different scoring thresholds for the second half of an upcoming football game between the Las Vegas Raiders and the New England Patriots. Each threshold represents a specific point total that, if exceeded by both teams combined, determines the outcome of that particular market.
All markets resolve based on the total points scored by both the Las Vegas Raiders and New England Patriots during the second half (including overtime) of their game scheduled for October 11, 2026. Each market has a unique threshold: if the combined second-half points exceed the specified threshold (3.5, 7.5, 10.5, 14.5, 17.5, 20.5, 21.5, 22.5, 24.5, 28.5, 31.5, 35.5, 38.5, or 42.5 points), the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Only points scored in the second half and overtime periods count toward these thresholds. The markets are independent, meaning each threshold is evaluated separately, and the outcome of one does not affect the others. Kalshi explicitly states it is not affiliated with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and often incorporate a profit margin, while this market is driven by individuals trading on their own beliefs. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook lines, it might indicate that the crowd believes the sportsbook is mispricing the probability of a particular outcome. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities as perceived by different groups.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where buyers and sellers set the prices for contracts. The price of a contract represents the probability of the event occurring. For example, a contract priced at 60 means there's a 60% implied probability of the total points in the second half being over the specified threshold. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders adjust these prices based on new information and their own analysis, creating a dynamic market that reflects collective expectations. The current price is determined by the most recent trades.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final total points scored in the second half of the Raiders-Patriots game will be used to determine whether the 'over' or 'under' contracts will pay out. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, and the outcome will be determined by the total points scored during that specific period of play, as reported by official sources.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Raiders or the Patriots could significantly shift expectations. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to affect scoring, could also move the market. Game-day developments, such as early scoring drives or defensive adjustments, will likely cause fluctuations in the price as traders react to the unfolding events. Public sentiment and expert analysis can also play a role in shaping market movement.