TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Time left: 10d:15h:28m
$
In the upcoming UEFA Nations League game between Luxembourg and Estonia, originally scheduled for Friday, November 13, 2026 at 2:45 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event): This market will resolve to "Luxembourg" if Luxembourg score more goals than Estonia in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Draw" if Luxembourg and Estonia score the same number of goals in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Estonia" if Estonia score more goals than Luxembourg in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. If this market's outcome was definitively determined under its rules by the listed resolution sources before abandonment, that outcome will stand. Otherwise, the following no-result provisions apply. If the game is canceled, does not start by Sunday, November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that time, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game has an official result but the second half was not completed, this market will resolve to "Draw". This market refers only to the outcome within the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. First-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor names, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences in a team's or player's name will not affect resolution, provided the intended team or player can be clearly and uniquely identified as a participant in the listed fixture or competition. If a listed name has no reasonable connection to any participant, or could reasonably refer to more than one participant such that the intended team or player cannot be determined, this market will resolve as it would if the listed fixture had been canceled entirely; a listed participant who cannot be identified does not count as inactive or absent. The primary resolution source for this market will be official match information from UEFA Nations League (https://www.uefa.com/uefanationsleague/). If the governing body or event organizers have not published final statistics within 2 hours of the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve to "Draw".
In the upcoming UEFA Nations League game between Luxembourg and Estonia, originally scheduled for Friday, November 13, 2026 at 2:45 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event): This market will resolve to "Luxembourg" if Luxembourg score more goals than Estonia in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Draw" if Luxembourg and Estonia score the same number of goals in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Estonia" if Estonia score more goals than Luxembourg in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. If this market's outcome was definitively determined under its rules by the listed resolution sources before abandonment, that outcome will stand. Otherwise, the following no-result provisions apply. If the game is canceled, does not start by Sunday, November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that time, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game has an official result but the second half was not completed, this market will resolve to "Draw". This market refers only to the outcome within the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. First-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor names, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences in a team's or player's name will not affect resolution, provided the intended team or player can be clearly and uniquely identified as a participant in the listed fixture or competition. If a listed name has no reasonable connection to any participant, or could reasonably refer to more than one participant such that the intended team or player cannot be determined, this market will resolve as it would if the listed fixture had been canceled entirely; a listed participant who cannot be identified does not count as inactive or absent. The primary resolution source for this market will be official match information from UEFA Nations League (https://www.uefa.com/uefanationsleague/). If the governing body or event organizers have not published final statistics within 2 hours of the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve to "Draw".
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often incorporating information and analysis not immediately captured by traditional sportsbooks. While sportsbooks set initial lines based on team statistics and expert opinions, this market allows anyone to trade based on their own insights. As a result, prediction market prices can sometimes diverge from sportsbook odds, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. It's common to see prediction markets more accurately reflect the true probabilities of outcomes, particularly closer to the event.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy shares in a particular outcome, its price increases, and the probability implied by the price rises accordingly. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current top outcome, Luxembourg to win the second half, has a chance percentage of 51.5% and a volume of $0.
This market resolves around Nov 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on which team – Luxembourg or Estonia – wins the second half of the match. The official result, as determined by the governing sporting body, will be used to determine the winning outcome and settle the market. Traders should ensure they understand the event schedule and potential for delays that might impact the resolution timeframe.
Several factors could influence trading activity and shift the odds in this market. Any news regarding team injuries, changes in player lineups, or tactical adjustments announced by either Luxembourg or Estonia could significantly impact the perceived probabilities. Unexpected weather conditions during the match, or even a controversial referee decision, could also trigger movement. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed participants, or shifts in public sentiment reflected in social media, could all contribute to price fluctuations before Nov 13, 2026.