TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 6, 4:43 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a UEFA Nations League soccer match between Luxembourg and Bulgaria, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. It reflects how analysts and fans might assess the relative strength and performance of the two national teams in a competitive fixture. The event considers different thresholds for victory, providing multiple perspectives on what constitutes a decisive win.
The event evaluates various victory margins in the Luxembourg vs Bulgaria UEFA Nations League match scheduled for October 6, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks. Four distinct outcome thresholds are considered: Luxembourg winning by more than 2.5 goals, Luxembourg winning by more than 1.5 goals, Bulgaria winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Bulgaria winning by more than 2.5 goals. Each threshold represents a separate market that resolves to 'Yes' if the respective condition is met; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. All markets are independent, and the event operator emphasizes that it holds no official affiliation with the governing league or its associated entities. Trademarks and branding remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often differ from those found at sportsbooks, reflecting the wisdom of the crowd versus the assessments of professional oddsmakers. Sportsbooks set initial lines to balance action on both sides, while this market allows participants to freely express their beliefs, potentially leading to more accurate probabilities. Discrepancies can arise from differing information access, biases, or simply the collective intelligence of prediction market traders. It’s common to see this market move independently of sportsbook lines as new information emerges.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the spread. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders aim to profit by accurately predicting the spread and trading accordingly. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts to reflect the evolving consensus. The current price indicates what traders are collectively willing to pay for a contract representing a specific spread.
This market resolves around Oct 7, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final spread of the Luxembourg vs Bulgaria match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the game as reported by a recognized sports data provider. The market will then pay out to those who correctly predicted the spread, based on the final score difference between the two teams. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result to understand the outcome of this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market leading up to Oct 7, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or tactical adjustments could significantly shift trader sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions at the game location could also play a role. Furthermore, general news about team performance, coaching changes, or even public perception of each team’s chances could impact trading activity and move the market price. Monitoring these signals is crucial for anyone looking to trade in this market.