TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 6, 6:44 PM EST
Polymarket
This group forecasts the exact final score of a UEFA Nations League match between Luxembourg and Bulgaria. Resolution depends on the score at the end of regulation time (90 minutes + stoppage time), excluding extra time or penalty shootouts. If the actual score isn't listed, 'Any Other Score' wins.
In the upcoming UEFA Nations League game between Luxembourg and Bulgaria, scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 2:45 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the Luxembourg vs. Bulgaria match originally scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 2:45 PM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. If the actual score is not one of the explicitly listed outcomes, the market resolves to "Any Other Score." If the match is postponed, the market will remain open until it is completed; if it is canceled with no make-up game, the market resolves to "0-0." The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
In the upcoming UEFA Nations League game between Luxembourg and Bulgaria, scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 2:45 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the Luxembourg vs. Bulgaria match originally scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 2:45 PM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. If the actual score is not one of the explicitly listed outcomes, the market resolves to "Any Other Score." If the match is postponed, the market will remain open until it is completed; if it is canceled with no make-up game, the market resolves to "0-0." The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect a more accurate forecast than traditional sportsbooks. This is because prediction markets incentivize participants to reveal their true beliefs, leading to a 'wisdom of the crowd' effect. Sportsbooks may be influenced by factors like public betting biases or attempts to maximize profit margins, whereas this market focuses purely on the probability of the exact score. However, sportsbook odds can still provide a useful point of comparison, and discrepancies can sometimes present arbitrage opportunities for informed traders.
Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price discrepancies between Polymarket and Predict on the Luxembourg vs. Bulgaria score market can arise from several factors. Each platform has its own user base with differing opinions and risk tolerances, leading to varying demand for specific outcomes. Trading volume also plays a role; a market with higher volume on one platform is generally considered more liquid and may have more accurate price discovery. Furthermore, differing fee structures and market-making activity on Polymarket and Predict can contribute to price divergence. These factors mean that while both platforms address the same question, their pricing mechanisms can produce different probabilities.
Several factors could significantly shift the probabilities in this market. Any news regarding player injuries or suspensions for either the Luxembourg or Bulgaria teams would be a major catalyst. Unexpected changes in weather conditions, particularly if they favor one team's playing style, could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, late-breaking news about team formations or tactical adjustments could prompt traders to reassess their predictions. Even significant shifts in public sentiment or betting patterns on external sportsbooks could indirectly impact the volume and pricing within this market.