TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Luxembourg vs. Bulgaria
predict
kalshi
polymarket

What is the result of Luxembourg vs. Bulgaria?

Volume:
$845,066

Bulgaria

all

3 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 6, 2026

Closed: Oct 6, 4:40 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Bulgaria

View
100%
74%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$211,074
N/A
N/A
$153,974
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Bulgaria

View
100%
74%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$99,827
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

BUL

View
99%
72%
Yes 99¢No 1¢
—
$26,320
$54,297
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

LUX

View
1%
44%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
$287
$82,243
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Luxembourg

View
0%
44%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$197,657
N/A
N/A
$144,507
Settled
No
polymarket

Luxembourg

View
0%
43%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$87,730
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Draw

View
1%
29%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
$266
$5,589
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$89,470
N/A
N/A
$68,518
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw (Luxembourg vs. Bulgaria)

View
0%
29%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,178
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of a UEFA Nations League soccer match between Luxembourg and Bulgaria, forecasting whether Bulgaria will win on October 6, 2026, within 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Currently, the consensus probability of Bulgaria winning is 99.1%. This forecast aggregates data from Predict, Kalshi, and Polymarket, with resolution determined by results reported at https://www.uefa.com/uefanationsleague/. Keep an eye on the official team lineups released closer to October 6, 2026, as these will provide key insights into each team’s strategy and potential for success.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Cancellation handling differs between Kalshi and Polymarket/Predict, potentially impacting resolution if the game is canceled.Hero tip: Polymarket/Predict markets are more likely to resolve to a draw if the game is canceled, while Kalshi will resolve to the outcome that occurs.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: If Luxembourg wins, Bulgaria wins, or the game ends in a tie after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, the market resolves to Yes. If the game is canceled, the market resolves to Yes for whichever outcome occurs.
  • Polymarket: If Luxembourg wins, the market resolves to "Yes". Otherwise, it resolves to "No". If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, it will resolve "No".
  • Predict: If Luxembourg wins, the market resolves to "Yes". Otherwise, it resolves to "No". If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, it will resolve "No" for Luxembourg and Bulgaria, and "Yes" for Draw.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This event is for the upcoming UEFA Nations League game, scheduled for Tuesday, October 6, 2026 between Luxembourg and Bulgaria.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the result of the Luxembourg vs Bulgaria UEFA Nations League soccer match scheduled for October 6, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Three distinct markets correspond to possible outcomes: Luxembourg win, Bulgaria win, or a tie. If Luxembourg scores more goals than Bulgaria by the end of regulation time, the Luxembourg market resolves to Yes. Conversely, if Bulgaria scores more goals, the Bulgaria market resolves to Yes. If both teams score an equal number of goals, the Tie market resolves to Yes. Extra time and penalty shootouts do not affect the resolution, as only the result after regular time and stoppage minutes is considered. Should the match be cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price as determined by the event rules. Kalshi explicitly states it is not affiliated with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.

Predict

This event is for the upcoming UEFA Nations League game, scheduled for Tuesday, October 6, 2026 between Luxembourg and Bulgaria.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates real-time predictions on the Luxembourg vs. Bulgaria match from multiple platforms, including Polymarket and Kalshi. Currently, the combined volume across these platforms is $845,066, with $830,389 traded in the last 24 hours. The dashboard provides a consensus view of the probabilities for various outcomes, allowing you to see where the crowd believes the most likely result lies. It’s a useful tool for understanding market sentiment and potential trading opportunities related to this specific sporting event. The current view suggests a competitive matchup, with differing probabilities across venues.

Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while prediction markets allow anyone to express their belief about the outcome. This can lead to discrepancies, especially when public sentiment strongly diverges from the sportsbook's initial assessment. While both aim to predict the correct result, the mechanisms and participant bases differ significantly, potentially resulting in different probabilities for this market.