TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 20, 4:44 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between two teams competing in a league game. The result is determined by the final score after the standard playing time, without considering any extra time or penalty shootouts. The event considers all possible outcomes of the match, including victories for either team or a draw.
The event covers a professional EFL League One soccer match scheduled for October 20, 2026, between Luton and Barnsley. There are three possible outcomes: a win for Luton, a win for Barnsley, or a tie after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. If the match ends in a tie, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, the markets will resolve to a fair price as determined by the platform. The platform explicitly states it is not affiliated with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often differ from those offered by traditional sportsbooks, reflecting the 'wisdom of the crowd'. Sportsbooks set their lines based on models and internal analysis, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook is mispricing an outcome, they can take a position in this market, driving the odds closer to their collective assessment. It's common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts, making this a potentially valuable comparison for informed bettors.
This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result of the Luton vs Barnsley match, as officially recorded by sports authorities, will determine the settlement of this market. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will receive a payout based on the final market price at resolution. It is important to note that the official result is the sole determinant, and any disputes regarding the match itself are outside the scope of this market.
Several signals could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team management, or unexpected shifts in team form would likely cause price movement. Major weather forecasts impacting game conditions could also play a role. Additionally, public sentiment and betting activity – even outside of Kalshi – can influence trader behavior and therefore the market price. Unexpected announcements or controversies surrounding either team could also lead to substantial shifts in the probabilities reflected in this market.