TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Louisville vs. NC State
polymarket
kalshi

What is the result of Louisville vs. NC State?

Volume:
$5,781,705

NC St.

 - Kalshi

NC St. - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 5, 2026

Closed: Oct 3, 7:05 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

NC St.

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,671,380
N/A
N/A
$879,863
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 57.5

View
100%
49%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$98,398
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 45.5

View
100%
22%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$16,980
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 51.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$16,468
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 47.5

View
100%
17%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$14,621
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 55.5

View
100%
45%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$11,211
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -2.5

View
100%
65%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$7,758
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -1.5

View
100%
62%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,182
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 49.5

View
100%
14%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$24
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 53.5

View
100%
39%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Louisville

View
0%
61%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,123,592
N/A
N/A
$1,840,625
Settled
No
polymarket

Louisville vs. NC State

View
0%
60%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$478,165
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Spread -3.5

View
0%
46%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$181,217
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Spread -4.5

View
0%
43%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$54,185
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Spread -7.5

View
0%
19%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19,255
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Spread -7.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,169
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 59.5

View
0%
44%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,735
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Spread -5.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,699
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 61.5

View
0%
40%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,082
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 69.5

View
0%
23%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,434
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Spread -5.5

View
0%
25%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,364
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Spread -2.5

View
0%
56%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,926
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 63.5

View
0%
35%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,596
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Spread -6.5

View
0%
39%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,027
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

1H Spread -2.5

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,010
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 216

Intro

This market tracks the likelihood of NC State’s total rushing yards exceeding 125.5 in their game against Louisville, as well as the likelihood of more than 0.5 total 4th down conversions in the same game. Currently, the aggregated probability across Polymarket and Kalshi indicates a 100.0% chance of NC State exceeding 125.5 rushing yards and a 100.0% chance of more than 0.5 total 4th down conversions. Resolution will be determined by data reported on https://www.ncaa.com/. Keep an eye on the kickoff of the Louisville vs. NC State game on October 3rd to see how these probabilities play out.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Significant divergence in market types and resolution criteria. Kalshi offers a simple win/loss market, while Polymarket provides a wide range of markets including spreads and over/unders.Hero tip: Focus on the specific market you're interested in and understand the resolution criteria on each platform. Kalshi is a simple win/loss, while Polymarket offers more granular options.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Kalshi offers a binary market that resolves to 'Yes' if either team wins, which is illogical and likely an error. It does not specify which team needs to win for a 'Yes' resolution.
  • Polymarket: Polymarket offers a comprehensive suite of markets resolving to 'Louisville' or 'NC State' for the game winner, and numerous spread and over/under markets with specific point thresholds. All markets have clear resolution criteria based on the final game score.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming college football game between Louisville and NC State, scheduled for October 3 at 3:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Louisville" if Louisville win the game. This market will resolve to "NC State" if NC State win the game. Overtime is included if played. If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Kalshi

The event determines the winner of the college football game between Louisville and NC State scheduled for October 3, 2026. If either team wins the game as originally scheduled, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, the market stays open and resolves based on the final result. If the game is cancelled or does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time, the market resolves to a fair price. The markets operate independently for each team, with each having its own resolution criteria based on its victory. Kalshi clarifies that it is not affiliated with the NCAA, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Kalshi, often reflect a different kind of information than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while prediction markets are driven by individuals wagering their own capital based on their beliefs. This can lead to discrepancies, as prediction markets may be more sensitive to nuanced information or expert opinions. Generally, these markets provide a valuable alternative perspective on the probability of different outcomes in the Louisville vs. NC State game.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts a different user base with varying levels of expertise and access to information. Trading mechanisms and fee structures also differ, influencing price discovery. Furthermore, the volume traded on each platform can impact price volatility and responsiveness to new information. Currently, the differing probabilities reflect these factors, with each venue offering a unique perspective on the potential result of the Louisville vs. NC State game.