TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 24, 8:58 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Louisville City and Detroit City FC, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result depends on how many goals separate the winning team from the losing team at the end of regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event resolves based on the goal differential between Louisville City and Detroit City FC in their USL Championship match scheduled for October 24, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Four distinct outcomes are possible: Louisville City winning by more than 2.5 goals, Louisville City winning by more than 1.5 goals, Detroit City FC winning by more than 1.5 goals, or Detroit City FC winning by more than 2.5 goals. Each outcome corresponds to a specific market resolving to 'Yes' if the actual result matches the defined margin of victory. No extra time or penalty phases influence the resolution. The event explicitly states that the platform operating the markets is not officially affiliated with the governing league, and all associated trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, while sportsbook odds are typically set by a smaller team of professionals. This can lead to differences in how each assesses the probability of an outcome. Sportsbooks may incorporate factors like public betting patterns and risk management into their odds, whereas this market is driven purely by traders’ willingness to buy or sell contracts based on their own analysis. It's common to see prediction markets move independently of sportsbook lines, especially as new information emerges.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders can buy and sell contracts representing different spread outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s current assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective belief. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth—the number of buy and sell orders at different price levels—indicates how easily orders can be filled and the potential for price impact from larger trades. The current volume indicates the level of interest in this particular event.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread in the Louisville City vs Detroit City FC match will be used to determine which contracts payout. This means the result will be based on the official result of the game, as reported by a trusted source. Traders will have until the resolution time to adjust their positions based on any new information that becomes available before the game concludes.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either Louisville City or Detroit City FC could significantly shift expectations. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions unfavorable for a specific playing style, might also impact trading activity. Unexpected lineup announcements or tactical adjustments revealed before the match could also cause the market to react. Finally, any significant public sentiment shifts, such as a sudden surge in betting on one team at sportsbooks, could influence traders’ behavior.