TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 8:02 PM EST
Kalshi
This event focuses on the margin of victory in the same soccer match, assessing whether either team wins by a substantial difference in goals. The result hinges on the winning team's goal advantage over the opponent during regular time, again excluding extra periods or penalties.
This event examines the winning margin in the Loudoun United FC versus Indy Eleven match, with markets resolving based on whether either team secures a victory by exceeding specific goal-difference thresholds. Two markets assess Loudoun United FC winning by more than 2.5 or 1.5 goals, while two others evaluate Indy Eleven winning by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals. All assessments are conducted after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with extra time and penalties disregarded. Each market independently resolves to 'Yes' if the stated condition is met, otherwise 'No'.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines which are set by oddsmakers. Sportsbooks may incorporate factors like public perception and branding into their initial odds, whereas this market is driven purely by traders’ willingness to buy or sell based on their own analysis. Over time, prediction market prices tend to become more efficient as more information becomes available and more traders participate. It’s common to see this market converge with sportsbook odds as the event approaches, but discrepancies can still occur due to differing opinions and risk assessments.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders set the odds by placing buy and sell orders. The price represents the probability of a particular outcome occurring, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The spread is currently trading at a price that reflects the collective belief of all participants on Kalshi. Traders can buy 'yes' contracts if they believe the spread will be as indicated, or sell 'no' contracts if they disagree, profiting if their prediction proves correct.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread for the Loudoun vs Indy Eleven match, as determined by official sources, will be compared to the market’s spread to determine winning and losing contracts. Traders holding contracts on the correct side of the spread will receive a payout, while those on the incorrect side will forfeit their stake. The resolution process ensures a transparent and objective determination of the result.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding player injuries, team form, or changes in coaching staff for either Loudoun United FC or Indy Eleven could significantly shift trader sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions on match day could also play a role, potentially impacting the style of play and the final score. Furthermore, major upsets in other related matches or broader trends in soccer league performance could influence how traders assess the probabilities in this market. Keep an eye on sports news and analysis leading up to Oct 4, 2026.