TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 3:44 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a baseball game between two teams, focusing on the margin of victory. The result depends on which team wins and by how many runs they win. Different thresholds define various possible outcomes for the market.
The event determines whether either the Lotte Giants or the Kia Tigers win the specified baseball game by a margin exceeding set run thresholds. Four distinct outcome conditions exist: the Kia Tigers winning by more than 2.5 runs, the Kia Tigers winning by more than 1.5 runs, the Lotte Giants winning by more than 1.5 runs, or the Lotte Giants winning by more than 2.5 runs. Each condition corresponds to a separate market resolution criterion. All markets apply strictly to the game originally scheduled for October 11, 2026, at 1:00 AM EDT. The operator explicitly states no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook has mispriced the probability of a particular outcome, the odds here may diverge. It's common to see discrepancies, especially before major events or when new information emerges. Comparing these odds to those offered by sportsbooks can reveal interesting insights into public perception and potential value.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome of the Lotte Giants versus Kia Tigers spread. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable traders are rewarded, and those who misjudge the outcome may incur losses. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust its expectations.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread will be determined based on the official result of the Lotte Giants versus Kia Tigers game. The resolution will reflect whether the Giants cover the spread, the Tigers cover the spread, or if the result is a push. Traders will then be paid out or required to pay based on their positions and the final outcome. This ensures a transparent and objective resolution process.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Lotte Giants or the Kia Tigers could significantly shift expectations. Changes in weather conditions, such as rain delays or strong winds, could also impact the game and subsequently the market. Additionally, major strategic announcements from either team, or even shifts in public sentiment reflected in other sports news and analysis, could all contribute to price movements in this market. Unexpected lineup changes are also a key catalyst to watch.