TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 30, 4:42 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on predicting which team will secure the first dragon in the first game of a League of Legends match between LOS and Team Liquid at the 2026 Worlds tournament. The outcome depends on in-game team performance at the start of the match.
If LOS records the first dragon in game 1 of the Worlds 2026: LOS vs. Team Liquid League of Legends match originally scheduled for Oct 30, 2026 at 4:00 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes. If Team Liquid records the first dragon in game 1 of the Worlds 2026: LOS vs. Team Liquid League of Legends match originally scheduled for Oct 30, 2026 at 4:00 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes. If Neither team records the first dragon in game 1 of the Worlds 2026: LOS vs. Team Liquid League of Legends match originally scheduled for Oct 30, 2026 at 4:00 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set their odds based on statistical models and expert opinions, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. As more information becomes available and opinions shift, the odds on Kalshi can diverge from, or converge with, sportsbook offerings. It’s common to see prediction markets more accurately forecast outcomes, especially as event time approaches, due to the continuous flow of information and diverse perspectives incorporated into the pricing.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit from correctly anticipating the event's outcome. The market dynamically adjusts as new information emerges and traders update their assessments, leading to a real-time probability assessment of which team will secure the first dragon.
This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on the official game logs determining which team secured the first dragon in the match between LOS and Team Liquid. The official game results will be used to determine the winning outcome. Traders holding contracts on the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on the incorrect outcome will not.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. News regarding player form, team strategies, or unexpected roster changes for either LOS or Team Liquid could all shift trader sentiment. In-game performance during the early stages of the match, such as early game kills or objective control, could also cause significant price movement. Analyst predictions and public opinion, while not directly reflected in the market, can indirectly influence trader behavior. Any significant development related to the teams or the game itself has the potential to move this market before Oct 30, 2026.