TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 30, 4:42 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of LOS and Team Liquid in the first game of their League of Legends match at the Worlds 2026 tournament. It focuses on how many times each team secures dragon kills, which are key in-game objectives that can shift the balance of power.
The event resolves based on the number of dragon kills achieved by LOS or Team Liquid in game 1 of their Worlds 2026 match scheduled for October 30, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific threshold of dragon kills for either team. If the match is postponed beyond 48 hours, cancelled, or forfeited before any relevant statistics are recorded, all markets resolve to the last fair price. If the match begins but is later forfeited, shortened, or replayed, resolution relies on officially published statistics at the time of the event, excluding any voided portions. The governing body's official statistics determine the outcome, with Kalshi emphasizing its lack of affiliation with the League.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks typically incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, which represents their profit margin. This market, driven by the collective wisdom of traders on Kalshi, aims to represent the true probability of an event occurring. While sportsbooks may initially set odds based on team rankings and expert analysis, this market can quickly adjust to new information and changing sentiment. Discrepancies can arise due to differing opinions on team form, player matchups, or even unforeseen circumstances impacting the game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders set the odds by placing buy and sell orders for contracts. The price of a contract represents the implied probability of a specific outcome occurring. As more traders buy contracts for a particular outcome, its price increases, and the implied probability rises. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth—the number of buy and sell orders at different price levels—indicates the level of agreement or disagreement among traders. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and reflect the collective intelligence of the crowd.
This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final number of dragons killed in Game 1 of the match between LOS and Team Liquid will be used to determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring an objective and transparent outcome. Traders will be able to see the final result and the corresponding payouts on Kalshi shortly after the game concludes, allowing for a clear and definitive settlement of all contracts.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Any news regarding player availability—injuries or unexpected roster changes for either LOS or Team Liquid—would likely have a significant impact. In-game performance during the early stages of the match, such as early dragon kills or dominant lane matchups, could also shift trader sentiment. Analyst predictions and community discussions surrounding team strategies and potential draft compositions can also contribute to price fluctuations. Unexpected announcements about game patches or server issues could also introduce volatility into this market.