TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 4:34 PM EST
Kalshi
The market measures rushing yards by Saquon Barkley, Jalen Hurts, and Kyren Williams in the October 4, 2026, game between Los Angeles R and Philadelphia. Payouts increase linearly with each yard rushed, up to a maximum of $1.00 per contract.
Each Yes contract pays $0.0025 per rushing yard recorded by the designated player during the specified game, with each No contract paying $1.00 minus the Yes payout. Payouts are capped at $1.00 per contract and constrained to a maximum of 400 rushing yards. The Yes payout is proportional to the number of yards rushed, while the No payout is the remainder, ensuring that together they sum to $1.00. Payouts are proportional to the holder's position size.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant news breaks or as public sentiment shifts. Examining these differences can be a valuable exercise for anyone interested in understanding how various sources assess the probability of different outcomes in this matchup.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different rushing yard outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more people buy contracts for a particular outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities in real-time, offering a forward-looking assessment of the potential rushing yard totals for this game.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official rushing yard statistics for the Los Angeles R versus Philadelphia game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final rushing yard totals, as reported by the official NFL statistics, will determine which contracts pay out and at what value. Traders will be able to see the official results and settlement details on Kalshi following the conclusion of the game.
Several factors could influence the price movement in this market. Any news regarding injuries to key running backs on either team would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they predict rain or snow, could also shift expectations about rushing yard totals. Additionally, late-breaking news about coaching strategies or defensive matchups could lead to adjustments in the market. Finally, large trading volume from informed participants could signal shifts in sentiment and drive price changes in this market.