TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 4:34 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks rushing performance in an upcoming professional football game, offering payouts based on how many yards specific players gain. Contracts reward higher payouts as players accumulate more rushing yards, with detailed tiers defining the return for each range of yards achieved.
Contracts in this market pay out based on the official rushing yards accumulated by designated players in the specified game. Each Yes contract’s payout scales non-linearly with the player’s rushing yards, following a cubic function that increases rewards significantly as yardage rises. Payouts are capped at $1.00 per contract, with No contracts paying the difference between $1.00 and the Yes payout. If a player records negative rushing yards, the Yes payout defaults to $0.00. The payout structure is consistent across all player-specific markets, using the same formula and yardage brackets to determine returns.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for profit margins, while this market is driven purely by traders’ beliefs about the outcome. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or news breaks. Polls and analysts’ predictions often align more closely with prediction market prices than with sportsbook lines, as both attempt to gauge overall probability rather than incorporate a ‘vig.’
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different rushing yardage outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe an outcome is likely, the higher the contract price will rise. Conversely, if traders believe an outcome is less likely, the price will fall. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently aggregate information and forecast the total rushing yards.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official rushing yardage totals from the Los Angeles R versus Philadelphia game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result will be based on the official statistics recorded by the NFL. The market will settle to 100 for the outcome that matches the actual total rushing yards achieved in the game, and 0 for all other outcomes. Traders will be able to claim their winnings once the resolution is finalized.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before it resolves around Oct 4, 2026. Injury reports for key running backs on either team are paramount; news of an injury to a starting running back would likely shift the odds. Changes in weather forecasts for the game day could also influence predictions, as inclement weather often favors a run-heavy offensive strategy. Finally, any late-breaking news regarding coaching decisions or defensive matchups could move this market, as traders adjust their expectations based on the latest information.