TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 4:44 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the number of receptions achieved by specific players in an upcoming football game between Los Angeles and Philadelphia. Each market corresponds to a different player, with payouts scaling based on the exact count of receptions they achieve during the match.
These markets resolve based on the official number of receptions recorded by each specified player in the Los Angeles R vs Philadelphia Pro Football game scheduled for Oct 4, 2026. Each Yes contract pays a predetermined amount that scales non-linearly with the number of receptions, following a cubic function formula: Payout = floor(10000 x (min(s, 14) / 14)^3) / 10000, where 's' represents the official receptions. The maximum Yes payout is $1.00, and each No contract pays $1.00 minus the Yes payout. If a player records 14 or more receptions, the Yes payout reaches its maximum value of $1.00. The markets resolve to Yes when the actual receptions match or exceed the threshold defined for each payout tier. All markets operate independently, with each player's performance evaluated separately according to the same payout structure and calculation method.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, sometimes differing from those offered by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance their risk and incorporate a profit margin, while this market is driven purely by participant beliefs about the likelihood of different outcomes. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or news breaks. Analyzing these differences can provide insights into where the crowd believes value lies compared to the sportsbook’s assessment of the game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders adjust their bids and asks based on new information, their own analysis, and their expectations of how others will react. This dynamic process leads to a constantly updating price that reflects the collective forecast for the number of receptions in the game.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final reception totals for the players involved in the Los Angeles R versus Philadelphia game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The official statistics released by the NFL will serve as the basis for the resolution, ensuring a transparent and verifiable result. Traders will be able to see the final outcome and any resulting payouts on Kalshi after the game concludes.
Several factors could influence this market before it resolves. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either team, particularly wide receivers or quarterbacks, would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, especially if they suggest adverse conditions for passing, could also impact trading activity. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic shifts announced during the week leading up to the game could also shift perceptions of likely outcomes. Finally, any late-breaking news about player matchups or defensive schemes could lead to adjustments in the price of contracts.