TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 4:40 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks whether specific players will achieve a rushing milestone in an upcoming football game between Los Angeles and Philadelphia. Each player's market focuses on whether they record a longest rush exceeding a set threshold during the match.
The event evaluates multiple individual player performance thresholds within a single football game between Los Angeles and Philadelphia scheduled for October 4, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different player and a specific yardage benchmark that must be exceeded for the market to resolve positively. If the designated player records a longest rush surpassing their respective threshold during the game, the associated market resolves affirmatively. If a player is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the pre-game fair market price. However, once a player takes at least one snap—regardless of whether the play is nullified by a penalty—the market outcome is determined solely by whether their longest rush meets or exceeds the stated yardage requirement. These rules apply uniformly across all individual player markets, ensuring consistent evaluation criteria for each participant's performance in the contest.
Generally, prediction market odds, like those found on Kalshi, often reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set their lines based on models and internal analyses, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own insights. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. These differences can present opportunities for arbitrage, where traders attempt to profit from the price variations between the two types of markets. However, it’s important to remember that both types of odds represent probabilities of an outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about which player will have the longest rush. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand—when more people buy a contract, the price goes up, indicating a higher perceived probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective assessment of all traders on the platform. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments as new information becomes available and opinions change. The market depth also provides insight into the strength of conviction behind each price.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The player with the longest single rushing attempt during the game, as officially recorded by the NFL, will determine the result. The official NFL game statistics will be used to verify the longest rush, and the market will settle based on this data. Traders should monitor official sources for the final game results to understand how this market will be resolved. Any disputes will be handled according to Kalshi’s market rules.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before resolution. News regarding player injuries to key running backs would be a major catalyst, as it would alter the expected usage and potential for long runs. Changes in weather conditions, such as heavy rain or snow, could also affect the game plan and favor a more passing-oriented approach, reducing the likelihood of long rushes. Unexpected coaching decisions or shifts in offensive strategy could also influence the market. Finally, any late-breaking news about player matchups or defensive schemes could lead to price adjustments on Kalshi.