TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 2:51 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of quarterbacks in a specific football game, focusing on how many passing touchdowns they achieve. Bettors can speculate on whether a player will reach certain thresholds of scoring passes during the match.
The event evaluates multiple markets based on the number of passing touchdowns recorded by Jalen Hurts and Matthew Stafford in the Los Angeles R vs Philadelphia Pro Football game scheduled for Oct 4, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific threshold of passing touchdowns (1+, 2+, 3+, 4+, and for Matthew Stafford, up to 5+). If the named quarterback achieves the specified number of passing touchdowns or more, the respective market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. A key secondary rule states that if a quarterback is active but never takes a snap, the market settles to the fair market price before the game starts. However, once a quarterback takes at least one snap—even if the play is nullified by a penalty—the market settles based on the actual passing touchdowns recorded during the game. These rules apply uniformly across all markets for both quarterbacks, ensuring consistent evaluation criteria for each threshold specified.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines which are set by oddsmakers. Sportsbooks may incorporate biases or react quickly to news, while this market aggregates the views of many individual traders. If there’s a significant discrepancy, it could indicate that market participants have access to information or perspectives not fully considered by sportsbooks. However, as the event approaches, the odds on Kalshi and sportsbook lines often converge as more information becomes available and public opinion solidifies.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the number of passing touchdowns. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective belief of traders regarding the likelihood of that outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to create a market that efficiently reflects the true probability of each possible result in this NFL game.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final number of passing touchdowns scored in the Los Angeles R versus Philadelphia game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring an objective and transparent determination of the winning contract. Traders should monitor official sources for the game results to understand the final settlement of this market and any associated payouts.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly those predicting adverse conditions for passing, could also impact trading activity. Furthermore, late-breaking news about team strategies or defensive adjustments could shift market sentiment. Even public perception, driven by analyst predictions or social media discussions, can contribute to fluctuations in volume and price on Kalshi.