TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 1:17 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of quarterbacks in a specific football game, focusing on how often their passes are intercepted by the opposing team. It examines different thresholds of interception counts to evaluate risk and predictability in gameplay strategies.
All markets resolve based on the total number of passing interceptions recorded by specified quarterbacks during the Los Angeles R vs Philadelphia Pro Football game scheduled for Oct 4, 2026. For each market, if the named quarterback records the specified minimum number of interceptions (1+, 2+, or 3+), the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. If a quarterback is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles to the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a quarterback takes at least one snap—even if the play is nullified by a penalty—the market settles strictly based on the actual number of interceptions recorded during the game. These rules apply independently to markets for both Jalen Hurts and Matthew Stafford, each with their own threshold requirements.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own analysis and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of traders believe an interception is more or less likely than implied by sportsbook lines, the price on Kalshi will adjust accordingly. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public perception shifts leading up to the game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the probability of a passing interception. The price of a contract ranges from 0 to 100, representing the implied probability of the event occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy contracts, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived likelihood of an interception. Conversely, selling contracts drives the price down, suggesting a lower probability. This dynamic pricing mechanism reflects the collective intelligence of the market participants.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether a passing interception occurred during the Los Angeles R versus Philadelphia game. Official game statistics from a recognized sports data provider will be used to determine the final result. Traders will be able to see the settled price reflecting the actual occurrence (or non-occurrence) of a passing interception in the game.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before it resolves. Any news regarding the quarterbacks' recent performance, particularly their interception rates, could significantly shift trader sentiment. Injury reports affecting key players involved in the passing game – the quarterback, wide receivers, or defensive backs – would also be a major catalyst. Even weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, which could increase the likelihood of turnovers, could move this market. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic adjustments could also play a role.