TOTAL VOLUME:
$155.3b
24H VOL:
$358,270,487
24H TRANSACTIONS:
3,002,125,488
OPEN INTEREST:
$2,041,693,191
423,163
Markets across
39,982
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,387
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 3:07 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the number of passing attempts made by specific quarterbacks in a professional football game between two teams. The outcome depends on whether the quarterbacks meet or exceed predefined thresholds for their passing attempts during the match.
The event resolves based on whether designated quarterbacks, Jalen Hurts or Matthew Stafford, meet or exceed specified passing attempt thresholds in the Los Angeles R vs Philadelphia Pro Football game scheduled for Oct 4, 2026. Each market corresponds to a particular player and threshold (e.g., 25+, 30+, 35+, etc.). If a quarterback is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a quarterback takes at least one snap—even if the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves based on the actual number of passing attempts recorded during the game. All markets operate independently, with resolution contingent solely on the defined thresholds for each player and the actual game statistics.
Generally, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade and express their belief about the likely outcome. This often leads to prediction markets being more accurate, especially as the event approaches and more information becomes available. It’s common to see discrepancies, particularly early on, as the market aggregates diverse perspectives on the potential number of passing attempts.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different passing attempt ranges. The price of each contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of that range occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective intelligence of the crowd. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Price movements are driven by new information, such as injury reports, weather forecasts, or changes in team strategy, and the dynamic interplay between buyers and sellers.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official passing attempt total for the game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result will be based on the official game statistics, ensuring an objective and transparent resolution process. Traders will be able to see the final outcome reflected in their contract positions, and any winning contracts will be settled accordingly. It's important to monitor the game closely as it approaches the resolution date to understand potential influences.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding the starting quarterbacks for either team, including injuries or changes in playing status, would be a major catalyst. Weather conditions, particularly wind or rain, could influence play-calling and the likelihood of passing attempts. Unexpected changes in coaching strategy or a shift in the game script – for example, if one team builds a large early lead – could also lead to substantial price movements in this market. Keep an eye on these developments as they unfold.