TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 6:59 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on whether specific players or teams will score at least one touchdown during an upcoming football game. Each market tracks individual player performance or defensive scoring units, providing insight into anticipated contributions from key offensive and defensive participants.
All contracts are designated as protected, meaning if a specified player participates in at least one play during the first half but does not participate in any play after the first half—including overtime—they resolve to the fair price prior to the game's kickoff unless they record the required touchdowns. If the player participates in any play after the first half, the contract settles based on actual statistics, irrespective of first-half involvement. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and a player who never participates remains subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies solely to full-game contracts with an at-least payout criterion, and this event considers touchdowns scored throughout the entire game, including overtime. Notably, passing touchdowns do not count toward the passer's touchdown total, and team defense/special-teams selections settle strictly on actual touchdowns without applying the player participation exception.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and to balance action, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook’s line is inaccurate, the prediction market price will move in the opposite direction. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before a lot of money has been traded, as the market attempts to establish a true probability based on available information. This can offer opportunities for informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes – in this case, the total number of touchdowns scored. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the collective assessment. The market’s depth and volume indicate the level of confidence traders have in each potential outcome, influencing the price discovery process.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of touchdowns scored in the game between Los Angeles R and Las Vegas will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring an objective and transparent outcome. Traders will be able to see the final result and the payout for their contracts shortly after the game concludes and the data is verified.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market. News regarding key player injuries for either Los Angeles R or Las Vegas would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favorable or unfavorable for passing, could also shift trader sentiment. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic adjustments announced before the game could also move the market. Finally, any late-breaking news or analysis regarding team performance or matchups could lead to price fluctuations as traders react to new information.