TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 7:48 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks rushing yard milestones for specific players in an upcoming football game between Los Angeles and Las Vegas. The outcome depends on whether designated players achieve various rushing yard thresholds during the full match, including overtime.
All markets in this event resolve based on whether specified players reach designated rushing yard thresholds during the entire game, including overtime. Each contract is marked as 'protected,' meaning if a player participates in at least one play during the first half but none after halftime, the contract resolves to the pre-game fair price unless the player meets the rushing yard requirement. If the player participates in any play after halftime, the contract settles based on actual statistics regardless of first-half involvement. Penalties that nullify a play do not count toward participation, and players who never participate are subject to the fair price non-participation rule. These rules apply uniformly to all markets, ensuring consistent resolution criteria across varying yardage thresholds for each player.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market is driven by traders who are incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook odds, it could indicate differing opinions on the likely result, or potentially an opportunity for arbitrage. It’s important to remember that both represent probabilities, but are derived through different mechanisms.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different rushing yard totals. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of the expected rushing yardage. The current market price indicates what traders believe is the most likely total, factoring in team strengths, player matchups, and potential game script.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official rushing yard totals from the game between Los Angeles R and Las Vegas are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result will be based on the official statistics released by the NFL, ensuring an objective and transparent determination of the winning contracts. Traders will be able to see the final outcome reflected in their account balances shortly after the official results are published.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key running backs on either team would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest heavy rain or snow, could also impact the expected rushing yardage. Additionally, late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions could shift market sentiment. Finally, large volume trades on Kalshi itself can create short-term price fluctuations as traders react to new information or attempt to capitalize on perceived mispricings.