TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 7:49 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the number of receptions achieved by specific players in an upcoming professional football game. Participants can speculate on the exact reception counts through tiered payouts, with rewards increasing as the number of receptions rises.
The event consists of four parallel scalar markets, each tied to a different player’s reception count in the same football game. For each market, Yes contracts pay out according to a predefined schedule that increases with the number of receptions, calculated using the formula floor(10000 x (min(s, 14) / 14)^3) / 10000, where 's' represents the official receptions recorded. The maximum Yes payout per contract is $1.00. No contracts pay $1.00 minus the Yes payout. All markets resolve to Yes once the game is completed and the official reception counts are verified. The structure ensures that payouts scale non-linearly, rewarding accurate predictions of higher reception totals with proportionally larger returns.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often proving more accurate than traditional sportsbook odds, especially as an event approaches. Sportsbooks may incorporate biases or seek to profit from public perception, while this market aggregates the diverse opinions of informed traders. However, sportsbook odds can initially move more quickly based on breaking news or significant wagers. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, with this market potentially offering a different perspective on the likely outcome based on collective intelligence.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different reception totals. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. The closer we get to the event date, the more the price will likely converge towards the true outcome, as more information becomes available and trading volume increases.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final reception totals for the players involved will be sourced from official NFL statistics, and the market will settle based on whether the actual number of receptions exceeds or falls below the contract’s threshold. The resolution process ensures an objective determination of the outcome, based on publicly available and verifiable data, providing clarity for all participants in this market.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Player injuries are a major catalyst, as the absence of key receivers would dramatically alter expectations. Changes in quarterback performance or team strategy could also shift the odds. Unexpected weather conditions during the game, such as heavy rain or strong winds, might affect passing volume and reception rates. Finally, any news regarding player matchups or defensive schemes could influence trader sentiment and lead to price movements in this market.