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416,910
Markets across
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Kalshi:
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Closed: Oct 25, 7:49 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track the performance of specific Los Angeles Rams receivers in an upcoming game against the Las Vegas Raiders. Payouts for 'Yes' contracts increase progressively with the player's receiving yards, following a cubic scaling formula. 'No' contracts pay the difference between $1.00 and the 'Yes' payout, creating a zero-sum dynamic where total returns sum to $1.00 per contract pair.
All four markets operate under identical payout structures and resolution mechanics. Each 'Yes' contract pays according to a cubic scaling formula based on the player's official receiving yards in the specified game, capped at $1.00 for 200+ yards. The payout schedule increases incrementally per 10-yard blocks from $0.0000 for 0-9 yards up to $1.0000 for 200+ yards, calculated as floor(10000 x (y / 200)^3) / 10000 where y = min(200, max(0, 10 x floor(s / 10))) and s represents official receiving yards. Each 'No' contract pays $1.00 minus the corresponding 'Yes' payout, ensuring total returns per contract pair equal $1.00. Negative yardage results pay $0.00 for 'Yes' contracts. All markets resolve to 'Yes' after payout determination, with Kalshi explicitly disclaiming official affiliation with the NFL or its teams.
Generally, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for profit margins, while this market is driven purely by traders’ beliefs about the likelihood of different outcomes. Often, prediction markets are more accurate than sportsbook odds, especially when considering the aggregate predictions of many participants. However, it's important to remember that both represent probabilities, and discrepancies can arise due to differing information or analytical approaches. It is common to see differences in implied probabilities between this market and those offered by sportsbooks.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different receiving yardage thresholds, and the prices of these contracts fluctuate based on supply and demand. As more traders believe a player will exceed a certain yardage total, the price of contracts representing that outcome will increase. Conversely, if traders believe a player will fall short, the price will decrease. This dynamic pricing mechanism reflects the collective wisdom of the crowd and provides a real-time assessment of the likelihood of various outcomes.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final receiving yardage statistics for the Los Angeles R versus Las Vegas game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will determine which player exceeds specific receiving yardage thresholds, based on official game statistics. The resolution will be based on the official NFL statistics reported after the game's completion. No further action is required from traders after the game concludes; the platform will automatically determine and reflect the outcome based on the verified data.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding player injuries to key receivers on either team would likely cause substantial shifts in the odds. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions for passing, could also impact the market. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic adjustments could also play a role. Finally, late-breaking news about player matchups or defensive schemes could lead to traders reassessing their positions. Monitoring these signals and events will be crucial for anyone looking to trade in this market before it resolves.