TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 6:48 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track the performance of quarterbacks in a specific football game, focusing on how many times they successfully connect with receivers. The outcomes depend on whether each player meets or exceeds certain thresholds of completed passes during the match.
The official rules establish multiple markets centered on passing completions for two quarterbacks, Kirk Cousins and Matthew Stafford, in the same professional football game. Each market has a distinct threshold (18+, 23+, 28+ for Cousins; 19+, 24+, 29+ for Stafford), with the market resolving to 'Yes' if the respective player achieves that number of completions or more. A key secondary rule applies uniformly: if a quarterback is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. However, once a quarterback takes at least one snap—regardless of whether the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves based strictly on the actual number of passing completions recorded during the game. These provisions ensure clarity in scenarios where a player is present but does not participate, and they eliminate ambiguity from penalty nullifications after snap participation has occurred.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. As more information becomes available – such as injury reports or weather forecasts – and as the event draws closer, you may see the odds on Kalshi converge with, or diverge from, those offered by sportsbooks. It’s common to see prediction markets more accurately reflect true probabilities as the event approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on new information and their own analysis, which dynamically updates the market prices. The goal is to accurately forecast the total passing completions for the Los Angeles R versus Las Vegas game, and the market reflects the collective intelligence of those participating.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing completions achieved during the game between Los Angeles R and Las Vegas will be used to determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring a transparent and accurate outcome for all traders. It’s important to monitor the game and official sources as the event nears completion to understand how this market will settle.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding the quarterbacks’ health, such as injuries or illness, would likely cause substantial movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly wind or rain, could also affect passing strategies and thus the number of completions. Unexpected coaching decisions or shifts in offensive game plans could also influence the market. Finally, late-breaking news about key receivers or defensive matchups could lead to traders adjusting their positions, causing fluctuations in the price of contracts on Kalshi.