TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 7:44 PM EST
Kalshi
This event ties fantasy football performance to financial outcomes for a specific NFL matchup. Participants bet on how many points key players will score in a game, with payouts scaling directly with the players' point totals. The structure ensures that returns are capped and balanced, reflecting the variability in player performance.
The event consists of multiple parallel scalar markets, each focusing on a different player from the Los Angeles Rams in their game against Las Vegas on October 25, 2026. For each market, Yes contracts pay $0.01 per PPR fantasy point scored by the designated player during the game, rounded to the nearest cent with half cents rounded up, and capped between $0.00 and $1.00. No contracts pay $1.00 minus the Yes payout. Payouts are determined using Sleeper's official weekly PPR fantasy-point totals for the specified player. If Sleeper does not assign a fantasy-point figure for the week, the player is considered to have scored 0.0 points, resulting in Yes paying $0.00 and No paying $1.00. All markets operate independently, with payouts proportional to each holder's position size, and are not affiliated with the NFL.
Generally, prediction markets like Kalshi often reflect information beyond what’s captured in traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks primarily consider statistical analysis and expert opinions, while this market incorporates the wisdom of the crowd, allowing traders to factor in potentially overlooked variables or late-breaking news. It’s common to see differences emerge, especially as new information becomes available, and the market adjusts more rapidly to changing perceptions than fixed sportsbook lines. However, both aim to predict the same underlying outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to find an equilibrium. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movement is driven by supply and demand; if many traders believe an outcome is likely, they’ll bid up the price of contracts representing that outcome, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of probabilities.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final fantasy point totals for the players involved in the Los Angeles vs Las Vegas matchup will be used to determine which players exceeded specific performance thresholds as defined by the market’s ladders. The resolution will be based on official fantasy football scoring rules and data, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the winning contracts.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Player injuries are a major catalyst, as they directly impact expected performance. Any news regarding player health, such as updates from team practices or official injury reports, will likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in player roles or offensive schemes could also move the market, as could unexpected performance in preceding games. Finally, broader news related to team dynamics or coaching decisions could also shift trader sentiment and impact the odds in this market.