TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 7:37 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either team specifically within the final quarter of a professional football game. Each outcome represents different point differentials that could determine the result, emphasizing end-game performance rather than overall game dynamics.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the 4th quarter of the designated Los Angeles R vs Las Vegas Pro Football game, with overtime periods excluded from consideration. A 'Yes' outcome occurs when the winning team achieves a points margin exceeding the specified threshold for that market. Thresholds range from narrow margins like over 1.5 points to substantial gaps such as over 10.5 points, covering both Los Angeles R and Las Vegas victories. The resolution hinges exclusively on 4th-quarter performance, rendering earlier game events irrelevant to these outcomes.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often aligning closely with sportsbook odds but sometimes diverging based on unique information or perspectives held by traders. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk assessment, while this market aggregates the views of many individuals. It's common to see initial discrepancies that narrow as the event draws nearer, as both markets incorporate new data. However, prediction markets can sometimes offer more favorable odds, particularly if there's a strong consensus among traders that differs from the sportsbook's initial assessment.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective intelligence of the crowd. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates what traders believe is the likelihood of Los Angeles R winning the 4th quarter by more than 2.5 points. The market depth shows the volume of buy and sell orders at various price levels, giving you insight into potential price movements.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread for the 4th quarter of the game between Los Angeles R and Las Vegas will be used to determine whether Los Angeles R won by more than 2.5 points. The resolution will be based on official game statistics and will be publicly available following the conclusion of the game. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their positions based on the final result.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before it resolves. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either team, particularly the quarterback or key defensive players, would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, especially if they suggest adverse conditions that could affect the passing game, could also move the market. Late-breaking news about team strategy or coaching decisions might also influence traders' perceptions. Finally, large volume trades on Kalshi itself can create momentum and shift prices, even without any external news.