TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 4:55 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on predicting which team’s defense will score the first touchdown in an upcoming professional football game. It includes scenarios where either defense scores first or no touchdown is scored at all during the game.
The event determines whether the Los Angeles R or Las Vegas defense scores the first touchdown in the specified professional football game, or if no touchdown is scored by either team. If either defense scores the first touchdown, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. If no touchdowns are scored in the game, the No Touchdown market resolves to Yes, and all other markets resolve to No. Special conditions apply if a defense is active but does not take a snap, in which case the market settles to the fair market price before the game starts. Once a defense takes a snap, the outcome is determined by whether they score the first touchdown. Touchdowns scored by the offense on fake punts or field goals do not count toward these markets.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set initial lines based on their own analysis, often incorporating a profit margin. This market, however, is driven by traders who are incentivized to accurately assess the probability of each outcome. While sportsbooks might initially favor one player, the prediction market can quickly adjust based on new information or differing opinions, potentially offering a more accurate representation of the true likelihood of who scores first.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing each possible outcome. The price of a contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy contracts for a particular player, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived chance of them scoring the first touchdown. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the collective intelligence of all participants.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will determine which player physically possesses the football while crossing the plane of the goal line first for a touchdown during the game. The official game statistics will be used to verify the result, ensuring an objective and transparent resolution process.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team strategy, or even weather conditions could shift the odds. A key player being ruled out would likely increase the probability of other players scoring first. Additionally, pre-game analysis from sports analysts and any late-breaking reports on player matchups could also drive trading activity and alter the prices in this market. Unexpected changes in the game plan or a player's performance during warmups could also be catalysts.