TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$244,077,041
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,901,278,909
407,043
Markets across
39,548
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,422
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 11:15 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between two Los Angeles teams, focusing on the margin of victory for either side. It evaluates whether one team wins by a specific number of goals more than their opponent. The result is determined based solely on the regular 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event consists of four distinct markets, each evaluating different goal-differential scenarios in the same soccer match. Markets one and two assess victories by Los Angeles F, with varying thresholds of more than 2.5 or more than 1.5 goals respectively. Markets three and four evaluate victories by Los Angeles G, again with thresholds of more than 1.5 or more than 2.5 goals. All markets resolve based on the official result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, explicitly excluding extra time or penalty phases. The governing rules emphasize that the platform bears no official affiliation with the league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than those found at traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on a variety of factors, including public perception and attempts to balance action on both sides. This market, however, is driven purely by the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to make accurate predictions. As a result, you may find that the implied probabilities from Kalshi differ from those offered by sportsbooks, potentially revealing insights into where the ‘crowd’ believes the value lies.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the spread. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand – if more people believe the spread will be a certain way, the price will rise, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to aggregate information and reflect the collective forecast of all participants. The current price reflects the probability that the spread will fall within the range defined by the market contracts.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread will be determined by the official result of the Los Angeles F versus Los Angeles G game. Once the official result is available, Kalshi will verify the outcome against these sources and settle the market accordingly. Traders who correctly predicted the spread will receive a payout based on the contract price at the time of resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 26, 2026. Any significant news regarding player injuries, changes in team strategy, or even weather conditions could shift expectations and cause the price to move. Unexpected performance in other games leading up to the event might also impact trader sentiment. Furthermore, large trades on Kalshi itself can create short-term price fluctuations, as the market reacts to new information or changes in positioning by individual traders.