TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 7:49 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks offensive performance in an upcoming football game between two teams, focusing on whether each team achieves specific yardage thresholds. The outcome depends entirely on the official game statistics, reflecting a common metric used to gauge team effectiveness in real football matches.
The event evaluates whether either team in the designated football game achieves various cumulative offensive yardage thresholds. Each market corresponds to a specific yardage benchmark (e.g., 250+, 300+, up to 450+) for either Los Angeles C or Seattle. If the specified team reaches or exceeds its designated yardage total during the game, the respective market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Postponements are accommodated if the game commences within 48 hours of its original schedule, in which case resolution follows the final official result. If the game does not start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of game timing uncertainties.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for a profit margin, while this market is driven by traders directly expressing their beliefs about the outcome. If a significant discrepancy exists, arbitrage opportunities may arise, where traders can profit by simultaneously taking opposing positions in the prediction market and a sportsbook. However, these opportunities are often short-lived as the markets adjust.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their predictions about team total yards. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, with higher prices suggesting a greater likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds based on their analysis of team statistics, player matchups, and other relevant factors. As more traders participate, the prices converge to reflect the collective assessment of the market.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final team total yards for each team will be sourced from official NFL statistics. The market will determine whether the actual total yards exceed the levels established in the market contracts. The resolution will be based on the official statistics released by the NFL following the completion of the game.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Injury reports for key offensive players, particularly quarterbacks and running backs, would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in weather forecasts, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could also influence predictions about passing and rushing yardage. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic adjustments announced before the game could also move the market. Finally, any late-breaking news regarding team dynamics or player availability could lead to shifts in trader sentiment and contract prices.