TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 8:24 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the number of receptions by specific players in an upcoming professional football game. Contracts will pay out based on the exact count of receptions achieved by each named player during the match, following a predefined schedule that increases with each additional reception.
The event consists of three separate markets, each tied to a different player’s reception count in the same football game. For each market, Yes contracts pay out according to a tiered schedule based on the number of receptions the designated player achieves, with payouts calculated using the formula floor(10000 x (min(s, 14) / 14)^3) / 10000, where s represents the official number of receptions. The payout increases progressively with each reception up to a maximum of $1.00 for 14 or more receptions. No contracts pay $1.00 minus the corresponding Yes payout. Each market resolves independently to Yes or No based on whether the specified reception threshold is met. All markets utilize the same payout structure and calculation method, and Kalshi explicitly states it has no official affiliation with the governing league.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from those offered by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance their risk and incorporate a profit margin, while this market represents the collective belief of traders. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook odds, it might indicate that the crowd believes the sportsbook is mispricing the probability of a particular outcome. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities, and neither is guaranteed to be correct.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible outcomes for the total receptions. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly, providing a real-time indication of market sentiment. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of receptions achieved by the players in the Los Angeles C versus Seattle game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. This is based on official game statistics and will be publicly available following the conclusion of the game. Traders will then receive their payouts based on the final result and their positions in the market.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding player injuries to key receivers or the opposing team’s defensive strategies could significantly shift expectations. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to impact passing offenses, could also move the market. Additionally, any late-breaking news about team dynamics or coaching decisions could influence trader sentiment and lead to price fluctuations. Monitoring these signals can help traders make informed decisions.