TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 7:56 PM EST
Kalshi
This market evaluates player performance in an upcoming football game between Los Angeles and Seattle by tracking receiving yards. Participants can bet on how many yards specific players will accumulate, with payouts increasing progressively as yardage rises. The structure rewards higher performance with exponentially greater returns.
Contracts pay based on the receiving yards accumulated by designated players in the specified game, using a tiered schedule where each 10-yard increment corresponds to a specific payout value. Payouts for 'Yes' contracts escalate non-linearly with yardage, calculated via the formula floor(10000 x (y / 200)^3) / 10000, where y is derived from the official receiving yards (s) scaled and truncated to multiples of 10, capped at 200 yards. 'No' contracts receive $1.00 minus the 'Yes' payout, with a maximum 'Yes' payout of $1.00. Negative yardage results in a $0.00 payout for 'Yes' contracts. The market resolves to 'Yes' following the game.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective, often incorporating information and analysis beyond what is readily available to traditional sportsbooks. While sportsbook odds are set by professionals, this market allows anyone to participate and express their view, potentially leading to different probabilities. It's common to see prediction markets move faster to incorporate new information or react to breaking news than sportsbooks, though discrepancies can occur due to differing market participants and risk assessments. Comparing the two can offer a broader understanding of potential outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential receiving yard totals. The price of each contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of that specific outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective intelligence of the crowd. This dynamic pricing mechanism means the market is constantly updating and responding to new information, making it a real-time indicator of expectations for the game. The current price indicates the perceived likelihood of exceeding or falling short of a given yardage threshold.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final receiving yard totals for the specified players are verifiable from credible public reporting. The official statistics released by the NFL will serve as the basis for determining the winning contracts. The market will then settle based on which contracts correspond to the actual receiving yardage achieved during the game. Traders holding winning contracts will receive a payout, while those holding losing contracts will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Injury reports for key wide receivers or tight ends are major catalysts, as their availability directly affects potential receiving yardage. Changes in weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could influence passing game strategies and therefore yardage totals. Unexpected coaching decisions or shifts in defensive schemes could also play a role. Finally, any news regarding player matchups or potential coverage assignments could lead to adjustments in the market's pricing as traders reassess the probabilities.