TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 7:50 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of quarterbacks in a specific football game, focusing on how many times they successfully connect with their receivers. The outcome depends on whether each player meets or exceeds predetermined completion thresholds during the match.
All markets resolve based on the total passing completions recorded by the named quarterback in the Los Angeles Chargers vs. Seattle Seahawks game scheduled for October 4, 2026. If the quarterback is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once the quarterback takes at least one snap—even if the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves according to the actual number of completions recorded during the game. Each market has a specific threshold for completions, and the market resolves to 'Yes' only if the player meets or exceeds that threshold. These rules apply uniformly across all markets for both Sam Darnold and Justin Herbert, ensuring consistent evaluation of performance against each defined completion benchmark.
Generally, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often incorporating information and perspectives not fully captured by traditional sportsbooks. While sportsbooks set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, this market allows anyone to trade based on their own insights, leading to potential differences. It’s common to see prediction market prices move in response to news, injuries, or changing public sentiment, potentially diverging from sportsbook lines as new information becomes available. Examining these differences can be insightful for both casual observers and experienced bettors.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the number of passing completions. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable traders are rewarded, and those with inaccurate views may incur losses. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to create a market price that accurately reflects the collective intelligence of all participants.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official game statistics are verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final number of passing completions recorded by the official league statistics will determine the winning contract. The resolution process relies on publicly available data to ensure transparency and accuracy, avoiding reliance on subjective interpretations or potentially biased sources. Traders will be able to view the resolution details on Kalshi once the event is finalized.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding the quarterbacks’ health, such as injuries or illness, would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in weather conditions, particularly strong winds or heavy rain, could affect passing strategies and completion rates. Unexpected coaching decisions or shifts in offensive play-calling could also influence expectations. Finally, late-breaking news about key receivers being limited or inactive could also move the market as traders adjust their predictions based on the evolving circumstances.