TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 7:56 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting whether specific players and teams will exceed designated fantasy point thresholds in an upcoming football game. Each market evaluates individual performance based on detailed scoring metrics, including offensive contributions, defensive plays, and special teams impact.
All markets resolve based on Sleeper’s default full-PPR fantasy scoring system applied to the full game (including overtime) between the Los Angeles Chargers and Seattle Seahawks scheduled for October 4, 2026. A 'Yes' outcome occurs if the specified player or team accumulates more than the stated fantasy point threshold. Players who do not participate or lack a published fantasy point value are considered to have scored zero points. The final fantasy point totals from Sleeper at the time of game expiration are used for resolution, with no post-expiration adjustments or rounding. Scoring includes passing, rushing, receiving, kicking, defensive/special teams contributions, and accounts for negative impacts such as interceptions, missed kicks, and fumbles. Specific point values are assigned to various in-game events such as touchdowns, yards gained, field goals, sacks, interceptions, and points allowed by defenses.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which can be influenced by factors like house bias or initial public perception. Sportsbooks set lines to balance betting action, while this market allows participants to directly express their beliefs about the outcome. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook odds, it may indicate that the crowd believes the sportsbook is mispricing the probability of a particular result. It's important to note that both represent probabilities, but are derived through different mechanisms.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the final fantasy point total. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective expectation. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price will fluctuate based on supply and demand, driven by new information and changing opinions about the performance of the teams involved. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to provide a real-time assessment of the likely outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final fantasy point totals for Los Angeles C and Seattle will be sourced from official fantasy football providers and used to determine the market's outcome. The market will settle based on the total fantasy points scored by both teams in their matchup, as reported by these sources. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct outcome will receive a payout.
Several factors could influence this market leading up to resolution. Any news regarding key player injuries or changes in team lineups for either Los Angeles C or Seattle would likely cause significant movement. Unexpected performance from players in recent games, or adjustments to offensive or defensive strategies, could also shift expectations. Furthermore, broader trends in fantasy football scoring, or even weather forecasts impacting game conditions, might influence trading activity and the price of contracts in this market.