TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 7:59 PM EST
Kalshi
This event links financial outcomes to the performance of specific players in an upcoming football game, using fantasy points as the measurement metric. Participants can bet on whether a player's performance will result in a payout based on their statistical contributions during the match.
Each market operates as a scalar betting mechanism where payouts for Yes contracts are determined by multiplying the player's Points Per Reception (PPR) fantasy points by $0.01, rounding to the nearest cent with half cents rounded up, and capping the payout between $0.00 and $1.00. The No contract payout is calculated as $1.00 minus the Yes payout. If a player does not receive a fantasy-point figure from Sleeper for the specified week, they are considered to have scored 0.0 points, resulting in a Yes payout of $0.00 and a No payout of $1.00. All payouts are proportional to the holder's position size, ensuring that the total potential payout remains consistent with the defined constraints regardless of the player's performance.
Prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market relies on the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. As a result, you may find discrepancies between the two. Generally, prediction markets tend to be more accurate than traditional polls or expert opinions, as traders have 'skin in the game' and are directly rewarded for correct predictions. It’s common to see this market adjust rapidly to new information and insights.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders set the odds by placing buy and sell orders for contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market's probability of that outcome occurring; a higher price indicates a lower probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders can buy contracts if they believe an outcome is more likely than the market price suggests, or sell contracts if they believe it’s less likely. This dynamic process continuously adjusts the prices until the market reaches an equilibrium, reflecting the aggregated beliefs of all participants.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final results of the Los Angeles C vs Seattle matchup as determined by official sources. The platform will then verify these results to determine which outcome corresponds to the actual event outcome. Traders holding winning contracts will be paid out according to the market prices at the time of resolution, while those holding losing contracts will forfeit their investment.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Los Angeles C or Seattle teams would likely cause a shift in probabilities. Unexpected changes in team strategy or coaching decisions could also influence trader sentiment. Furthermore, performance in preceding games, updated statistical analysis, and even public perception based on media coverage could all contribute to price fluctuations. Major upsets or surprising results in related matchups could also indirectly impact this market as traders reassess their predictions.